Scenario simulator
This is a sensitivity tool, not polling. It shows how assumptions move the seat projection.
Most probable government formation
Current political situationPath to 19
Probability gauge
Monte Carlo outcome forecast
Runs randomised elections around the current slider settings to estimate how often each government-formation outcome occurs.
Explain this scenario
Simulated result
Most common
Monte CarloSeat probability distribution
Monte CarloShows the simulated probability distribution of PH and BN seat totals. The dashed line marks the 19-seat majority threshold.